Steel mills are picking up orders and the seamless pipe market continues to fluctuate within a narrow range

Steel mills are picking up orders and the seamless pipe market continues to fluctuate within a narrow range

1. Overview of weekly prices for seamless pipes

This week (10.9-10.13), the price of seamless pipes fell first and then stabilized. Monitoring data from the ruixiang steel cloud business platform shows that as of October 13, the average market price of 108*4.5 continuous-rolled seamless pipes in the ten leading cities was 4,906 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan from last week and a decrease of 17 yuan from before the holiday. Calculated based on the factory quotation of Panjin Steel Pipe 108*4.5 and the quotation of Panjin Resource Market in Linyi area, the price difference between the two is about 350 yuan.

2. The pressure on mainstream seamless pipe factories has slightly decreased

1. Shandong pipe factory start-up fell slightly

The operating rate of seamless pipe factories nationwide was 53.59%, a decrease of 1.23% from that during the holidays. Among them, the operating rate of the seamless pipe factory in Liaocheng was 76%, which was 7% lower than before the holiday and 3% higher than during the holidays. The operating rate of the mainstream pipe factories in Linyi was 33%, which was 2% higher than the holiday period.

2. Finished material inventories of mainstream seamless pipe factories declined slightly.

In the second week of October, the inventory of 46 mainstream seamless pipe factories across the country was 750,300 tons, 11,600 tons less than before the holiday. Among them, the total inventory of 21 sample seamless factories in Linyi, Liaocheng and Weiyan in Shandong is 457,100 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared with the holiday period. Due to the shutdown of the pipe factory for maintenance, the inventory in the factory has been slightly reduced, but the overall inventory is still normal during the year. At a slightly higher level, after entering the fourth quarter, the demand for seamless pipes will gradually decrease, and the inventory pressure of pipe factories is still not small.

3. The production profits of seamless pipe factories have been slightly restored.

In the second week of October, seamless pipes and tube blanks weakened simultaneously. The price of tube blanks fell by 10-50 yuan compared with before the holiday, and the price of seamless pipes dropped by 10-30 yuan compared with before the holiday. Calculating the production loss situation of pipe factories in Linyi area There is slight relief, ranging from 18 to 30 yuan.

Ruixiang Steel Group’s view: The pipe factory operation has basically returned to pre-holiday levels around the 10th of this week, and the inventory in the factory has dropped by 2.26% compared with pre-holiday, basically maintaining a slightly higher normal level during the year. The total inventory of seamless pipe blanks in Shandong is 418,200 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from last week. This week, the mainstream steel mills in the north released the news of suspending production and maintenance in mid-to-late October. Other steel mills took the opportunity to raise prices to accept orders. However, the pipe factory believes that the price of pipe blanks has room for a downward trend of 30-50 yuan, and the room for price fluctuations is limited. Therefore, how much does the pipe factory have? Purchase tube blanks multiple times in large quantities to reduce risks.

3. Downstream market demand is still resilient

1. The social inventory of seamless pipes is still at a normal high level during the year.

In the second week of October, the total social inventory of seamless pipes in 23 cities was 690,700 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons compared with the holiday period.

2. Seamless pipe market procurement demand maintains a certain degree of resilience

After the holiday, the average daily trading volume of the 22 seamless pipe factories in Shandong showed an upward trend. As of the 13th, the average daily trading volume of the sample pipe factory was 19,900 tons, an increase of 6.78% compared with the holiday period. Downstream demand is still in the slow recovery stage, and the market is not optimistic about the fourth quarter, so traders are operating cautiously.