Recently, with the gradual implementation of favorable macro policies, market confidence has been effectively boosted, and the spot prices of black commodities continue to rise. The spot price of imported iron ore has hit a new high in the past four months, the price of coke has risen three rounds in the short term, and the scrap steel continues to be strong. The output of steel products increased slightly, the demand in the off-season gradually weakened, and the supply and demand continued to be weak. Strong raw and fuel prices, increased production cut expectations near the Spring Festival, and low inventory levels have become the main factors supporting steel prices in the current off-season consumption.
import and export
From January to November, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrate was 1.016 billion tons, a year-on-year -2.1%, of which imports in November were 98.846 million tons, a month-on-month +4.1%, and a year-on-year -5.8%. The cumulative export of steel products was 61.948 million tons, +0.4% year-on-year, which turned from a decline to an increase for the first time in the whole year. Among them, exports in November were 5.590 million tons, +7.8% month-on-month and +28.2% year-on-year. The cumulative import of steel products was 9.867 million tons, which was -25.6% year-on-year, of which 752,000 tons were imported in November, which was -2.6% month-on-month and -47.2% year-on-year. In November, the global economic growth continued to slow down, the manufacturing industry was sluggish, and the demand for steel products and overseas iron ore remained weak. It is expected that my country’s steel export volume will fluctuate slightly in December, and import volume will run at a low level. At the same time, the overall supply of iron ore in the world will continue to be loose, and my country’s iron ore import volume will fluctuate slightly.
Steel production
In late November, CISA’s key statistics on the average daily output of iron and steel enterprises were 2.0285 million tons of crude steel, +1.32% from the previous month; 1.8608 million tons of pig iron, +2.62% from the previous month; 2.0656 million tons of steel products, +4.86% from the previous month +2.0%). According to the production estimates of key statistical iron and steel enterprises, the national average daily output in late November was 2.7344 million tons of crude steel, +0.60% month-on-month; 2.3702 million tons of pig iron, +1.35% month-on-month; 3.6118 million tons of steel, +1.62% month-on-month.
Transactions and Inventory
Last week (the second week of December, from December 5th to 9th, the same below) the optimization and adjustment of the epidemic prevention policy has a certain boost to the market, driving a small increase in downstream steel demand, but it is difficult to change the overall market decline, seasonal off-season The characteristics are still obvious, and the national steel demand continues to remain low. The speculative sentiment in the short-term steel market has warmed up, and the trading volume of steel products in the spot market is still relatively sluggish. The weekly average daily trading volume of construction steel products was 629,000 tons, +10.23% month-on-month and -19.93% year-on-year. Steel social inventory and steel mill inventory increased slightly. The total social and steel mill inventory of the five major types of steel was 8.5704 million tons and 4.3098 million tons, respectively, +0.58% and +0.29% month-on-month, and -10.98% and -7.84% year-on-year. It is expected that this week, the trading volume of steel products will fluctuate slightly.
Raw fuel prices
Coke, the average ex-factory price of first-grade metallurgical coke last week was 2748.2 yuan per ton, +3.26% month-on-month and +2.93% year-on-year. Recently, the third round of coke price increase has landed. Due to the simultaneous rise in the cost of coking coal, the profits of coking enterprises are still relatively thin. The coke inventory of downstream steel mills is low. Considering the demand for winter storage and replenishment, the price of superimposed steel products has risen steadily. For iron ore, the forward spot CIF price of 62% imported fine ore last weekend was US$112.11 per ton, +5.23% month-on-month, +7.14% year-on-year, and the weekly average price was +7.4% month-on-month. Last week, the port iron ore inventory and blast furnace operating rate increased slightly, while the average daily molten iron production dropped slightly. The overall supply and demand of iron ore remained loose. It is expected that this week, iron ore prices will fluctuate at a high level. For scrap steel, domestic scrap steel prices rose slightly last week. The average price of scrap steel above 6mm in 45 cities was 2569.8 yuan per ton, which was +2.20% month-on-month and -14.08% year-on-year. Internationally, scrap steel prices in Europe rose significantly, with Rotterdam +4.67% month-on-month and Turkey +3.78% month-on-month. U.S. steel scrap prices were +5.49% month-on-month. With the gradual implementation of favorable macro policies, the continuous optimization of local epidemic prevention and control policies, and the winter storage of scrap steel in some enterprises, some support has been formed for scrap steel prices. It is expected that this week, scrap steel prices will strengthen within a narrow range.
steel price
Steel market prices rose slightly last week. According to the statistics of China Iron and Steel Association, the average price per ton of steel for the eight major types of steel is 4332 yuan, +0.83% month-on-month and -17.52% year-on-year. From the perspective of steel products, except for seamless pipes, which was -0.4% month-on-month, other major varieties all rose slightly, within 2%.
Last week, the steel market generally continued the weak supply and demand situation of the previous week. The operating rate of blast furnaces increased slightly, the average daily output of molten iron decreased slightly, and the output of steel products increased slightly. On the demand side, under the positive external boost, the activity of market speculative demand has increased significantly, while the spot consumption of steel products remains sluggish as winter deepens. Supported by factors such as firm raw and fuel prices, low inventory levels, and increased expectations of production cuts near the Spring Festival, the sharp drop in steel prices lacks momentum. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate this week. (Ruixiang Steel Research Institute)
Post time: Dec-13-2022